Harvard/Brigham Infectious Diseases doctor, writer, editor, educator. Prefer baseball to football, pizza to sushi, dogs to cats, Beatles to Stones.
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Why are Covid19 case numbers dropping? It's probably multi-factorial -- in other words, a gemish* -- and pretending otherwise might get us into trouble. Because there's a lot about this virus we still don't know. Latest post:
blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observa…
I really like this list of reasons with seasonality and herd immunity 1, 2 and vaccines 4 and likely when mutations occur, fitness cost to virus (but Dr. Sax and I think about HIV all the time & that is what happens). All around optimism. twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/stat…
BK Titanji #ILookLikeAScientist
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Sun Feb 21
Why are covid case numbers down?The question many of us have be wondering about,/have be asked about 😊. Well say no more, who better than @PaulSaxMD to put it all in context with the relevant caveats. Short version - it's multifactorial, don't let your guard down. twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/stat…
Gemish, yes! + reminder that herd immunity isn't a magic epidemic on/off switch. It's a level of indirect protection from removing susceptible hosts. Before a magic threshold is reached, increased immunity in population may magnify impact of NPIs, even poorly-implemented ones... twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/stat…
Public Hlth Dr,interested in evid-based health services commissioning,clinical leadership & hlth policy.My views are my own,RTs are no endorsements
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