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Israel’s vaccine effect is as clear as it is because cases and hospital admissions among younger, un-vaccinated groups kept rising there despite restrictions, or fell more stubbornly. Low adherence to Israel’s current restrictions has been well-documented. pic.twitter.com/t0HEYpMzm0

Overall, cases in the UK have actually fallen further and faster than in Israel despite that elusive vaccine effect being less clear over here. So what’s going on? pic.twitter.com/ws29VvE6zh

The same is true when we look at cases among vaccinated groups in each country. Cases among people aged 80+ in the UK (first to be vaccinated) have fallen faster than those among 60+ in Israel (first to be vaccinated). pic.twitter.com/WBrzizEQTY

And the same is true if we look at the 60+ in both countries. Long story short: cases, hospitalisations and deaths are falling very fast among vaccinated groups in the UK, it’s just that the success of lockdown means there’s less difference vs the younger, unvaccinated groups. pic.twitter.com/dkEtCZOZV3

This is similar to what’s happened in vaccine trials, where efficacy has sometimes *appeared* lower or less conclusive because too few people were infected in *either* vaccine or placebo. Same is true in real-world UK data: steep downward trends in both, not just the vaccinated.

Obviously none of this is to say lockdown should go on longer than necessary. Mobility data suggests UK will suffer a hit to GDP in Q1 2021, and that means real impacts to jobs, earnings & livelihoods. But the UK’s winter restrictions have been a big success on the global scale pic.twitter.com/aHA4CytnCr

And ironically, the relaxation of restrictions may be what starts to make the vaccine effect clearer. Fully story: ft.com/content/6d4ff1…