NEW with @ChrisGiles_:
UK vaccine effect is now clear in data on hospital admissions & deaths, but harder to see in cases
Some have seen this as a worrying sign, but I’m here to tell you it’s the opposite: a sign of how effective UK lockdown has been
Israel’s vaccine effect is as clear as it is because cases and hospital admissions among younger, un-vaccinated groups kept rising there despite restrictions, or fell more stubbornly.
Low adherence to Israel’s current restrictions has been well-documented. pic.twitter.com/t0HEYpMzm0
The same is true when we look at cases among vaccinated groups in each country.
Cases among people aged 80+ in the UK (first to be vaccinated) have fallen faster than those among 60+ in Israel (first to be vaccinated). pic.twitter.com/WBrzizEQTY
And the same is true if we look at the 60+ in both countries.
Long story short: cases, hospitalisations and deaths are falling very fast among vaccinated groups in the UK, it’s just that the success of lockdown means there’s less difference vs the younger, unvaccinated groups. pic.twitter.com/dkEtCZOZV3
This is similar to what’s happened in vaccine trials, where efficacy has sometimes *appeared* lower or less conclusive because too few people were infected in *either* vaccine or placebo.
Same is true in real-world UK data: steep downward trends in both, not just the vaccinated.
Obviously none of this is to say lockdown should go on longer than necessary.
Mobility data suggests UK will suffer a hit to GDP in Q1 2021, and that means real impacts to jobs, earnings & livelihoods.
But the UK’s winter restrictions have been a big success on the global scale pic.twitter.com/aHA4CytnCr
Useful thread. Much like vaccine efficacy trials, the fastest evidence for routine vaccine impact will unfortunately come from places where the epidemic is less under control. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…