Reporter @nytimes on mainly #covid19 Winner 2019 Victor Cohn Prize. Before: Founding EIC @Spectrum, co-founder @CultureDish DMs open OR Apoorva@NYTimes.com
Fascinating maps showing how B.1.1.7's rise was masked by the drop in overall cases. And hospitalizations are now rising in people under age 50, as some experts predicted would happen
@apoorva_nyc @chrislhayes You can use “variant positivity” to gauge the rise of variants even when you aren’t doing surveillance on a random sample. Just like “test positivity” it tracks trends over time.
@apoorva_nyc Agree, much more transmissible strain and leads to many more cases. Lets say the Ro went⬆️from 2.5 to 2.9, that would mean than in a 100% susceptible population, after 10 cycles of infection, you would have 42,071 cases with B.1.1.7 vs 9,537 cases with the parent strain.
Michael Z. David, MD, PhD
Tue Apr 06
Until pediatric vaccination gets well underway, it seems unlikely that we will gain control over the virus:
As Variants Have Spread, Progress Against the Virus in U.S. Has Stalled - The New York Times nytimes.com/interactive/20…
physician-scientist, author, editor
The heterogenous, patchwork pattern of the B.1.1.7 strain in the US. Some states are ≥70% but Michigan is the only now with a very sharp rise in cases and hospitalizations. Many are still below 50%
nytimes.com/interactive/20… by @LaurenLeatherby pic.twitter.com/yEV0JJykEi
Professor of Global Health & Public Policy @DukeU. Director, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. TIME magazine columnist. DJ @wxdu. Views are my own
I agree 💯 with everyone who says we need to get more vaccines to regions experiencing surging cases (surges driven in part by variants). But why are we only talking about vaccines? Why not use a comprehensive set of public health measures? Why the delay? nytimes.com/interactive/20…
It’s utterly baffling to me. The vaccines are amazing, & the dominant message (which I agree with!) is that the vaccines are awesome & will end the US pandemic. But LOTS of people, including vulnerable people, aren’t vaccinated. Why is the strategy to use vaccines ONLY?
#B117 is soaring in Michigan, now responsible for an increasing share of the surge in #COVID19 cases, displacing old common strain(s) & causing a new surge. This was PRECISELY predicted by epidemiology models for months.
Healthy level of precautionary principle alarmism is good. twitter.com/LaurenLeatherb…
Epidemiologist & Health Economist. Health Policy & Justice. Senior Fellow, FAS. Former 16 yrs @Harvard. @JohnsHopkins & @HarvardEPI alum. COVID updates Jan’20-
Hospitalizations for #COVID19 are rising again in those age <=59.
Cases rising across majority of states—especially in the north (colder climate, more indoor activities with windows closed—thus likely more airborne transmission).
Stay vigilant. 🙏