Updated pre-print on >2.4 million COVID contacts in England: transmission increases with higher viral loads. B.1.1.7 increases transmission by ~55%. Lowest risk of transmission from children. Lateral flow devices can detect up to 89.5% of infectious COVID. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…pic.twitter.com/oCgJH1iX11
@drdavideyre @drlennardlee @ModMedMicro @bdi_oxford @OxfordBRC Do have estimates for LFD sensitivity split out by wildtype vs. variant? Should be higher than overall estimate of 89.5% for wildtype only. Important implications for the US & places with lower rates of variants.
@drdavideyre @drlennardlee @ModMedMicro @bdi_oxford @OxfordBRC You should be able to calculate the “proportion of transmission” among cases caught by LFD in addition to proportion of cases. Should just be some form of calculating area under curve for fig 3b? Would help make the case that lfds really catch vast majority of infectious cases.