NEW: probably the most important Covid chart I’ve made
As Delta goes global, it’s a tale of two pandemics, as the heavily-vaccinated Western world talks of reopening while deaths across Africa and Asia soar to record highs
My story with @davidpilling ft.com/content/fa4f24…pic.twitter.com/lIfIf9v5X6
Here’s another version, zooming in on the last few months.
In two well-vaccinated European countries, weeks of surging cases are reflected by only a sliver of deaths.
In eight countries where very few are vaccinated, surging cases are mirrored in surging deaths as before. pic.twitter.com/oc681pkbll
A grim gulf is opening up between the wealthy, mostly vaccinated world and the poorer, mostly-unprotected.
In the UK, vaccines have reduced the case-fatality rate roughly 12-fold, from ~2% to 0.16%
In Namibia, Tunisia, Malaysia and Indonesia, death rates have never been higher.
For those of us in the UK, US and Europe it’s easy to feel like the pandemic is on its way out.
But tell that to the people of Gauteng province in South Africa (home to Johannesburg and Pretoria), where the current wave has produced more deaths than any wave before. pic.twitter.com/zS7IO12ebb
And as ever, those numbers understate the true toll.
Johannesburg alone has recorded 5,635 excess deaths from natural causes in this wave, 40% more than the official total of Covid deaths for the whole province.
Jo’burg’s current death rate is worse than London’s in April 2020. pic.twitter.com/4GlVlXvB7S
To be clear, the Western world is not out of the woods yet either.
In England, hospital & ICU admissions are now above the level where restrictions were introduced last year and continue to rise at the same rate as in previous waves.
Tomorrow England completes its reopening 🤔 pic.twitter.com/XYpRhfsunH
Jason Kindrachuk, PhD
Sun Jul 18
Great thread on current global transmission patterns. In short, vaccines work when and where they’re available. Now need to work on getting that second part addressed as the clock is ticking at the cost of lives and livelihoods👇 twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
Bad news: Profound vaccine inequity is costing many lives. Good news: Targeted vaccination of high-risk groups uncouples cases and death at even 43.5% fully vaccinated--and probably has impact long before that point. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
Clear-cut graph that we can use to convince people reluctant to be vaccinated around us… with the new variants we will probably need an 80-90% of fully vaccinated population to reach herd immunity. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
These figures are awful, a nightmare made reality because of the cowardice of our rich nation leaders & greed of pharmaceutical companies who happily take billions from taxpayers but deliver doses to only a few, both refusing repeatedly to share tech that could've prevented this. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
Look at these charts. Just horrific. And USG paid for, holds patents on these vaccines, and still has done nothing serious to get them quickly to the places that need them. A national shame. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
physician-scientist, author, editor
The Delta variant and record high deaths in multiple countries with low vaccination, in contrast with those where high vaccination is saving lives by lessening the linkage to infections
by @jburnmurdoch and @davidpilling @FT ft.com/content/fa4f24…pic.twitter.com/uPuwGnzQ4S
(1/4) While high income countries are debating whether to vaccinate children or not, we should not forget that the developing world is in a much worse condition. Time to start prioritizing their vaccine supply? Great piece by @jburnmurdoch & @davidpilling
Julián A. Fernández-Niño
Sun Jul 18
¿es ético que los países de altos ingresos vayan a vacunar ya a niños pequeños que sabemos tienen muy bajo riesgo de complicaciones, al tiempo que en los países de bajos ingresos las coberturas de personas con mayor vulnerabilidad a morir son bajas? twitter.com/TWenseleers/st…
physician-scientist, author, editor
South Africa's 3rd wave has been the worst yet, attributable, at least in part, to the dominant Delta variant. The Gauteng province has been worst hit ft.com/content/fa4f24… Vaccine suppliers not coming through played a pivotal role @_HassanF @HealthJusticeIn @GautengHealth pic.twitter.com/eHHGnbTEu4
Professor & Canada Research Chair of Epidemiology & Global Health @McGillU. Associate Director, @McGill_TB. Editor-in-Chief @PLOSGPH. Tweets: own views. He/him.
Will world leaders avert this catastrophe??
As vaccinated countries open up, the worst is yet to come for low & middle-income countries
This Delta-driven trend is terrifying & can result in millions of lives lost!
ft.com/content/fa4f24… via @jburnmurdoch @davidpilling pic.twitter.com/jwqXcG4T60
I've worked on all of science, from B cells to T cells.
'As economies in Europe and the US that have successfully weakened the link between infections and deaths have started to reopen, poorer countries with low vaccination rates are in some cases entering their worst phase of the pandemic.'