physician-scientist, author, editor
I'm all for reassurance and vaccines are holding up well to Delta, but this op-ed needs a little editing
wsj.com/articles/delta… by @LeslieBienen @MonicaGandhi9
It's early in Delta dominance; hospitalizations are starting to surge among non-vaccinated.
And there's #LongCovid pic.twitter.com/wXJt7HCw1I
HI @EricTopol, see your point & the increase in hospitalizations in unvaccinated very worrisome. Reassurance was around that hospitalizations per case according to delta prevalence not increasing (e.g. virulence) & effectiveness of vaccines against delta.
This is Delta at work. It hits fast but causes less damage. Scotland's Delta cases peaked on June 30. They have already dropped by about half. Total hospitalization peaked 2 weeks later. Despite more Delta than Alpha cases, hospitalization tops out at 1/4 the hosp peak of Alpha. pic.twitter.com/oBvloChscS
Yes, @AstorAaron we also found delta not more virulent in US analysis (wsj.com/articles/delta…). But it is not just that: less damage when higher % of population now vax'd in time of delta than alpha in Scotland ("uncoupling") twitter.com/AstorAaron/sta…
MD, MPH; infectious diseases and HIV doctor at UCSF (tweets own, however); reading
The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant. By I and @LeslieBienen and @citizen_oregon . There are 3 things concerning about a variant - transmissibility, whether increased virulence & whether evades vaccines. Virus likely more "fit" which we explain
but to public, the delta will become the dominant variant if more fit. So, 2nd question is whether the delta is more virulent. Luckily, there is CDC publicly-available data one can download & look at this. 1st step is to show hospitalizations not increasing in kids with delta pic.twitter.com/4FANJ2moSI
Then one wants to look at regions with prominent delta prevalence in the US and ask whether "hospitalizations per case" is increasing to see if more virulent. Luckily, not the case as shown by the chart in the paper - actually hospitalizations per case less with more delta pic.twitter.com/wDxLPALIpi
So, what is there to do?
1) Increase vaccinations among those eligible in US which will protect those not yet eligible (children) and avert hospitalizations
2) Global vaccine equity to stop these preventable deaths and stop variants from coming